Bhubaneswar: As the upcoming general elections for the Lok Sabha and Odisha Assembly are fast approaching and have around 120 days, the state politics has been undergoing a state of confusion. This is because; governing BJD president and five-time chief minister Naveen Patnaik prefers to keep the political spectrum guessing. There is no clarity over the possible coalition or seat adjustment between the BJD and the BJP. On the other hand the politicians across the state including those belonging to the BJD and the BJP are also not sure whether there will be any sort of seat adjournment between the two parties.
The confusion over the possible seat adjournment is made because the regional party that has reigned over Odisha since more than two decades, maintains a balanced relationship with the BJP. While the BJD leadership is having a very cordial relationship with the BJP’s central leadership, it mostly targets the Odisha unit of the saffron party . Even Naveen has gone on record according 8 out 10 marks to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and also described the BJP led central government as “less corrupt.”
This apart, the BJD has all along supported PM Narendra Modi and HM Amit Shah in various issues be it demonetization, abrogation of Article 370 from Jammu and Kashmir or several bills. Even the regional outfit which used to hit the streets on occasion of price rise during the UPA government, could hardly be seen as against the Modi government. Naveen has also supported a BJP candidate (Ashwini Vaishnaw) in the Rajya Sabha elections and also provided unconditional support to the Modi dispensation many times thus indicating that the BJD was hand in gloves with the BJP at the central level.
Even BJP’s “Chanakya” Amit Shah during his last visit to the state addressed Naveen as the “Popular” chief minister and praised the BJD government’s anti-naxal measures as. This is not all, Shah also held a one-to-one discussion with Naveen’s close aide V K Pandian. While many people are not aware about the subject of discussion between Shri Shah and Shri Pandian, political circle was agog with various speculations.
However, of late, particularly after BJP’s landslide victories in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, there has been certain change in the BJP central leadership’s mindset. Apart from Dharmendra Pradhan and Bisheshwar Tudu, three other central ministers during their recent visits criticized the state government. Prior to assembly victories of BJP, there was no such word from the BJP central leadership.
It is also discussed in the political circle that there is a certain difference of opinion over seat sharing between BJD and the BJP. The saffron party which has 8 Lok Sabha MPs from Odisha, now wants more seats and the BJD is in no mood to share more than five seats with the BJP. A recent survey has revealed that the BJD’s Lok Sabha seat number could go up to 15/16 from the existing 12 seats. The BJP last time won the Lok Sabha seats in Bhubaneswar, Balasore, Mayurbhanj, Sundergarh, Bargarh, Sambalpur, Kalahandi and Bolangir. This time round, there is no guarantee that the BJP can retain all the eight seats. Keeping in view the recent survey, BJP may lose some seats in Odisha.
Therefore, there is reason for the BJP to enter into a seat sharing with the BJD in order to maintain its position in the Lok Sabha while BJD has no such compulsion. This apart, the BJD also does not require assistance from the BJP in the Assembly elections. There was a time in 2000 when the BJD was dependent on the BJP during the Atal Bihari Vajpayee tenure. Now, things have changed and the BJD has become stronger than BJP and any other party in Odisha. Congress is not a factor for the BJD and the BJP still struggles with 22/23 seats in the 147 member House. According to political analysts, BJP needs the BJD’s help and not the vice-versa. However, BJD does not want confrontation with any political party including BJP, but aims to raise its own stake.
Former Leader of Opposition and Bhawanipatna MLA Pradipta Nayak, recently said that the BJD deliberately wants to create confusion among the saffron rank and file giving indications that the regional party is close to the BJP central leadership and therefore, the BJP state leadership cannot harm it.
Keeping in view the past background, there is a general impression in public that BJD and the BJP are close to each other and they enact the “enemy-enemy” play during elections. The people have by now understood the game plan of both the parties and may either go with BJD or the BJP in absence of apparently less existence of the Congress. Most people prefer the BJD in the “enemy-enemy” game to BJD because it forms the government in Odisha. They feel secure to go with BJD leading to loss of BJP. The people have during the last four years tested the role of BJP as an opposition party. The BJP might not have met the peoples’ aspiration as an Opposition party.
Anyway, there is still confusion over the BJD-BJP relationship and the people should be made to understand that the BJD is not close also to the BJP central leadership. The people may not accept the words of any state leaders in this regard. Therefore, either Shri Modi or Shri Shah has to make the people of Odisha clear that the BJD is the real political enemy of BJP in Odisha. Unless, the people’s confusion is not addressed, there is least possibility of BJP forming a government in Odisha, though time and again State BJP President Man Mohan Samal is saying that BJP will form Government in Odisha in 2024.
