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Will Modi Tsunami Hit!

Bhubaneswar: As the results of the four State Legislative Assembly elections held in the Hindi belt clearly gave their verdict in favour of Prime Minister Narendra Modi by electing BJP in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, the picture for the next 2024 general elections appears to be clear.

There seems to be no stoppage for the saffron party, at least in the Hindi speaking states, be it Uttar Pradesh or MP, Rajasthan or for that  Chhattisgarh. .

The people appear to understand the language of Shri Modi alone and none else thus giving clear indication that the BJP could sweep the next Lok Sabha elections. Thanks to the mismanagement and infighting in Congress and among INDIA partners.

They have clearly failed to pose a united fight against BJP which is as such the biggest as well as wealthy political party across the globe.

The Congress has utterly failed to give a united fight even as Rahul Gandhi could gain a clear popularity during his Bharat Jodo Jatra. Mostly due to infighting, as mentioned by senior Congress Lawmaker Suresh Kumar Routray in Odisha, the tussle between Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and senior leader Sachin Pilot, dug the death canal for the Congress in the desert state.

This is not all, this infighting also had its impact in the MP where simultaneous elections were held. The major factor for the Congress debacle was removing veteran strategist DK Shivkumar from MP.

Though Shri Shivkumar was initially involved in the MP elections, he was later shifted to Telangana where Congress could win the Assembly elections.

Had Shri Shivakumar been in MP, the results could have been different today as the present Congress leadership could not highlight the anti-incumbency factor among the people.

This could be one of the factors of Congress defeat in MP. Similarly, though all exit polls highlighted Congress has an edge over BJP in Chhattisgarh, the result was somewhat contradictory.

The defeat of Congress in Chhattisgarh may be due to corruption in all levels of government as the AICC mostly depended on Rupesh Bahgel for many things including funding other state elections like one held in UP. The government could not manage the situation leading to the public considering it to be corrupt.

Shri Bhagel was also accused in a corruption case during the electioneering. However Shri Baghel led the Team Congress with lot of enthusiasm.

Anyway, will the four state election results have any impact on Odisha politics? The question is doing rounds across the state. While BJP is optimistic that the “semi-final” results would influence the final elections in 2024, both BJD and Congress rejected it. It may sound political in nature.

But, the fact remains that the four state elections will certainly impact Odisha politics where BJD continued to rule the state for 24 years without any break. Now that the saffron rank and file are elated over the four state elections, the BJP leaders feel that it was a morale booster for the party.

They consider that “Modi Tsunami” will certainly hit this time under the changed political situation in Odisha even though the “Modi Wave” failed to upset Naveen Patnaik’s apple cart in the 2014 and 2019 elections.

Though BJD has been gaining strength by every passing day and every election since its inception, Naveen has been physically weak to now take on the burden of a twin elections. It is natural that a person’s age is a factor and that phenomenon is applicable to Naveen also as a human being. Odisha’s five time CM’s physical presence in election meetings make difference.

This has been proven several times in the last two decades. He is the lone crowd puller in  the party and there is no match to Naveen’s popularity as a CM and not even Shri Modi  as the  PM. Though some leaders in the regional party have been doing menial organizational work, they might be an alternative to Naveen. The relationship between BJD and the BJP has remained cordial since Shri Modi became Prime Minister.

But, the fact remains that everybody loves to make friends with a strong and powerful person. Before 3 December, BJP was not at all at par with BJD and therefore, its central leaders were appeasing Naveen in different ways. The saffron leaders were accepting one and all conditions of Naveen and his party. However, now with the enhanced stature of BJP, the saffron leaders may not accept Naveen’s conditions and make serious bargaining with the BJD in any matter. This election result has raised BJP’s bargaining power. However, Naveen knows how to tackle elements those emerge as threat on his way.

As Union Home Minister and BJP’s Chief Strategist Amit Shah in his reaction said that the Assembly results have proved that the days of appeasement and caste politics are over and that ‘New India’ votes on politics of performance, Naveen too believes in that theory. His list of performance and implementation of welfare schemes for different sections of people, is endless. If Shri Shah is correct, Naveen seems to have no problem as he is above caste politics and tops in the performance.

On the Other hand, though the Congress lost Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, the oldest party leaders in Odisha are happy that their organization could defeat a regional party in Telangana.

BRS leader K Chandrasekhar Rao was equally popular and powerful in his state. He could finally be defeated. Thanks to the family politics in the Shri Rao family, which gave a major handle for the Congress in Telangana.

Though Naveen Patnaik has no such issues in Odisha, the Congress is equally confident to defeat the BJD because of its proximity with BJP.

Here, the Congress reads BJD’s relationship with BJP as a liability which may be costly for the regional party in upcoming elections.

Anyway, time will tell who gains and who loses in the political chess board of Odisha which of late has become too slippery.