Bhubaneswar: As the general elections to the twin polls of Lok Sabha and Odisha Legislative Assembly are less than a year, both the Governing BJD and Opposition BJP have already started their preparation for the mega event. Keeping focus on Lok Sabha seats, both are busy in making strategies for the ensuing polls. While the Governing BJD this time focused on the Lok Sabha seats, the Opposition BJP too eye on more seats in the Lower House of the Parliament. The BJP right now has eight Lok Sabha Members and they are mostly in the western region of the state. The BJD’s fort remains the coastal and southern Odisha as always.
Though the BJP could easily get 8 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 general elections, this time it may face a herculean task to retain its seats as the BJD was determined to increase its tally in the Lower House of the Parliament. The BJP right now has Lok Sabha seats like Bhubaneswar, Balasore (coastal), Mayurbhanj (north), Kalahandi, Sambalpur, Bargarh, Bolangir and Sundergarh (all west). This indicates that the BJP has advantage in the western region of the state while the BJD wins the confidence of people in coastal areas. The Congress has won only one seat in Koraput (south). Of the 21 Lok Sabha seats, the BJD has 12, BJP 8 and Congress-1.
However, in the previous 2014 elections, the BJP had only one seat in Sundergarh while the remaining 20 seats were with the BJD. In the changed circumstances where the Odisha BJP has accelerated its activities and emerged as a strong opposition, the BJD has apparently decided to repeat the 2014 election results. The party has everything including a solid vote base, strong workers’ network and above all no dearth of money. Still, the regional party lost seven seats to the BJP in the last elections and the factor could be Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity.
The people in Odisha last time in 2019 elections indulged in split voting. The people who voted the BJD for the assembly elections, preferred the lotus symbol in Lok Sabha polls. This was a new trend and the saffron party could gain effectively by winning in 8 Lok Sabha seats.
This time round, the strategy makers of the BJD are in a dilemma over how to contain the BJP in western region of the state. The ruling party has taken several steps to appease the voters of western region. However, despite the BJP’s all out efforts, the four by-polls in Jharsuguda, Padampur, Brajrajnagar and Bijepur have gone in favour of BJD. Naveen Patnaik’s party has also performed exceptionally well in panchayat and urban polls in western region in 2022, which was held after the 2019 general elections. Still, the party seems uncertain of the people’s mood and their split voting attitude which was seen last time. The opposition BJP is of the view that they (BJD) may win by-polls and panchayat polls, the people will vote for the saffron party in the Lok Sabha elections as they did last time.
Keeping in view the next Lok Sabha polls, the BJP has organized mass rallies of stalwarts like Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, BJP President J P Nadda, Union Minister Rajnath Singh and others. The BJP’s objective is to woo the voters for the Lok Sabha polls, though they appeal for a double engine government in Odisha. In a bid to attract people’s attention, the BJP government in the Centre made arrangements of free rice for the BPL families and attempted to get credit over the Naveen Patnaik’s government’s Rs 1 a kg rice. Later, the BJP also sanctioned 9.5 lakh units of houses under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY) for the poor people of Odisha. The BJP people have also decided to reach all the households across the state and inform the people about the welfare activities of the NDA government and the alleged misrule of the BJD in the state.
This time, BJP sources said that Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, who was elected to the Rajya Sabha from Madhya Pradesh, is asked to contest the Lok Sabha elections in Odisha. Shri Pradhan is likely to contest from Dhenkanal seat or he may opt for Sambalpur seat. Shri Pradhan has been taking stock of the situation before choosing Dhenkanal or Sambalpur. Though Dhankanal is his home seat, he is not confidant to become a candidate from there keeping in view the BJD’s influence in grass root level. At the last moment he may opt for Sambalpur as he will genuine the support of Leader of Opposition and BJP stalwart Jaynarayan Mishra.
Similarly, the BJP may field Railway Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw from Cuttack or Balasore seat. Shri Vaishnaw was Collector at both the Districts.
Similarly, BJP is likely to repeat its MP Aparajita Sarangi in Bhubaneswar from where she won the election by a margin of 23,839 votes. Meanwhile, Aparajita has created more base within her party and outside. However her direct attack on Naveen’s close aide and questions on governance style has irked the BJD.
Anyway, both the BJD and BJP this time are more serious about the Lok Sabha polls. This is because the BJD is confident of winning the Assembly elections though its number of seats may decline to certain extent. But the regional party will certainly put all its efforts to win more Lok sabha seats so that the BJD would be in a better position to bargain the BJP during the formation of government at the centre after the 2024 general elections. It is in fact a do or die situation for both the BJD and the BJP to win the Lok Sabha seats in Odisha.
