Patna: Exit polls for the two-phase Bihar Assembly election concluded this evening, with a consensus among major pollsters predicting a decisive victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and the Bharatiya Janata Party. The projections indicate the NDA is likely to secure a comfortable majority, paving the way for the alliance to form the next government in the 243-member house.
A poll of polls, aggregating the results from several agencies, suggests the NDA is poised to win around 148 seats, significantly surpassing the simple majority mark of 122. Individual exit polls consistently placed the ruling alliance in a winning range, generally predicting between 130 and 167 seats. For instance, Matrize projected 147-167 seats for the NDA, while Dainik Bhaskar gave them 145-160 seats, and People’s Pulse forecast 133-159 seats.
Conversely, the opposition Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance), led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal’s Tejashwi Yadav, is predicted to fall short of the majority, with most surveys placing their expected tally in the range of 70 to 102 seats. This figure represents a potential setback for the alliance, which had mounted a spirited campaign.
Political strategist Prashant Kishor’s debut party, Jan Suraaj, appears to have made minimal electoral impact, with projections unanimously placing its seat share in the low single digits, typically between zero and five seats.
It is important to note that exit poll results are merely projections and not the final outcome. The actual counting of votes and declaration of results for the Bihar Assembly Election 2025 is scheduled for November 14. In the past, specifically the 2015 and 2020 Assembly elections, exit polls have demonstrated a mixed record of accuracy in the state, often underestimating the eventual winning alliance.