Bhubaneswar: It is said two plus two do not make four in politics. It may also be 22. Similarly, addition of several zeros also does not make a number. But in politics, additions of zeros make a difference. Taking a cue from the political mathematics, Congress in Odisha, which has been losing its vote share on every election, has started assembling the small and fringe parties having little presence in electoral politics. Once the ruling party in Odisha, has now assembled different parties before going to face the 2024 elections. So a new front is emerging in Odisha, being supported by Congress.
The Congress recently held a meeting of nine small parties including left parties and the combination is ready to show a united show in the first week of August. OPCC President convened a meeting which was attended by the leaders of CPI, CPI(M), AAP, RJD, SP, RPI, TMC and Samata Kranti Dal. These parties joined hands and vowed to jointly fight against the ruling BJD and the opposition BJP in Odisha.
However, other political parties like Forward Bloc, CPI(ML) Liberation, CPI(ML) Red Star, Samrudha Odisha and Janata Dal (U) have not joined the alliance. These parties are likely to join the alliance before the polls, a senior leader said.
Now the question arises whether these parties along with Congress can fight against the mighty BJD and the BJP, the ultra rich parties having presence across the state? If one goes by vote share the combination of eight parties other than Congress may not touch 10 per cent. Congress, which ruled the state for several years, has meanwhile been losing its vote share from 38 per cent in 2000 to 13 per cent now. Taking vote share of all the nine parties, the total vote share would be less than 20 which is seems not a big factor in the state politics.
Political observers, on the other hand, conclude that the candidates of these parties may not win elections, but may become a factor of defeat in several assembly segments in Odisha. Though left parties have been losing ground across the country except Kerala and Tripura, their existence is at stake in Odisha and West Bengal. CPI presently has one MLA (Laxman Munda) in the Assembly, while the Congress lawmakers number declined to eight after suspension of Barabati-Cuttack MLA Mohammad Moquim from the party.
Though they are not able to win elections, the influence of left parties are still there in the districts of Sundergarh, Jharsuguda, Jagatsinghpur and some other pockets. The left parties play a key role in elections in certain pockets of the state. Therefore, late Pyarimohan Mohapatra all along suggested Biju Patnaik not to ignore left parties as they have the potential of defeat of some candidates in certain segments way back in 1995. Now, the ruling BJD headed by Bjiu Patnaik’s son, has never made any alliance with left parties, but preferred to go with right-wing party like BJP. The BJD formed alliance with BJP from 2000 to 2009 during which the left parties suffered a lot as the BJD-BJP combine become more acceptable to the people due to Atal Bihari Vajpayee factor.
As denied acceptance by the BJD, the left parties have political compulsions to join hands with Congress to fight the bigger enemy like BJP. Left parties are not much against BJD, but they tilted towards Congress because the regional party has completely ignored them. This apart, the left parties also don’t accept any other party supporting the BJP. Though Naveen Patnaik claimed to be maintaining equal distance with both the BJD and the Congress, his party seems tilted towards saffron. Therefore, it is natural that the left parties will remain with the party (Congress) which is opposed to the BJP.
Regarding AAP, RJD, SP, RPI and others, BJP is the enemy number one in different states and therefore, they find Congress umbrella is more protective than fighting all alone against BJD or the BJP. Some other parties which have not joined the Congress’s recent meeting may attend its August convention.
Though it was considered that the 2024 elections in Odisha would be between the BJD and the BJP due to the decline of Congress in the state, the new combination of at least nine parties may make things different, feel political observers. In some constituencies, the Congress alliance may also pose difficulty for both the BJD and the BJP. It may help Congress to a certain extent though the oldest party may not win many seats in the 2024 elections.
Anyway, the political situation in Odisha remains fluid as the people are yet to accept BJP as the main opposition party even as the number of saffron members is second largest in the Odisha Assembly. But, Naveen’s quiet alliance with the BJP national leaders forced people to think several times to go with the saffron party. They suspect what is the point of voting for BJP which has good relations with BJD? Therefore, some people may opt for the third party like Congress which has so far enjoyed support of eight other small and fringe parties.
As the elections to Lok Sabha and Odisha Assembly will be held in next 7-8 months, some other combinations may also emerge, feel political strategists. There should be no doubt that Congress alliance will certainly be a factor in the upcoming elections. The BJD would like to take support of Congress alliance in certain places in order to defeat BJP, feel they.