Bhubaneswar: Like two other major political parties in Odisha, opposition Congress has also started working to achieve its goal of forming a government after the 2024 General Elections for Lok Sabha and State Assembly. The Congress which presently has its members in Assembly in the single digit (9), aims to raise the tally to 90 seats. OPCC president Sarat Pattnayak’s call for 9 to 90 sounds catchy! However, many people feel that the Congress’s target could end up like BJP’s Mission 120 Plus in two previous elections. While BJP boasted to get 120 assembly seats in 2019, the saffron party ended up at 23. However, the BJP could elevate itself as the state’s principal opposition party in Odisha.
No doubt, the Congress leaders after the party’s victory in neighbouring Telangana, have been elated and hope to form government in Odisha also after 2024 elections. However, is it possible for the oldest party to raise its tally from 9 to 90 seats in the Odisha Assembly? The reality is, however, different. The party has been losing its vote share in subsequent elections while befit goes to BJP and the Naveen Patnaik headed BJD maintained its position. In a nutshell, while Congress loses, BJP gains and BJD position stands static. This is the ground situation across Odisha.
After a long spell in the government in Odisha, the Congress was ousted from power in 2000 and since then suffered further losses. Even the party lost its principal opposition tag by getting only 9 seats in 2019 elections against the BJP’s 23 seats. BJD captured 113 seats in the House of 147 members in Odisha Assembly.
Looking at the statistics, it is clear that the Congress which had secured 26 assembly seats by getting 33.78 per cent votes in 2000, now got reduced to only 9 seats and 16,12 percent of votes.
In the last two decades, Congress has lost around 18 percent of the vote share. One can easily say that the BJP is the ultimate beneficiary as the saffron party’s vote per cent increased to 32.49 per cent in 2019 from just 18.19 per cent in 2000. The BJP has gained by 14.3 %. On the other hand the BJD which secured 29.40 % of votes in 2000, now raised its ratio to 44.71 per cent. However, there was seat sharing between BJD and the BJP in the 2000 and 2004 elections.
Now the question arises, can the Congress get back to its 2000 glory and become the main opposition party by securing 33.78 % votes? It has to fill the gap of around 18 per cent.
Instead of making provisions and chalking out strategies on how to return to its 2000 position, the oldest party leaders have suddenly hoped to form a government overnight. OPCC president Sarat Pattnayak often gives instances of 1995 elections when the Congress’s seat could increase to 80 from just 10 in 1990. Therefore, Shri Pattnayak’s claims that his target of 9 to 90 seats is not unreasonable.
However, the OPCC president forgets that the Congress vote share was 29.78 % then in 1990 votes when it got only 10 seats. Now, the Congress has secured only 9 seats and its vote share is only 16.12 per cent. Then the Congress has only one rival in the form of Janata Dal headed by Biju Patnaik while at present, the party has to face both the BJD and the BJP. The situation between then and now is a long difference.
The Congress’s main aim now should be to raise its vote share in the 2024 elections and not against the hope to secure 90 seats from just nine seats. Then, how to raise the vote share? The oldest party must bring leaders from different parties (both BJD and the BJP) to increase its vote share and also attract the youth and women votes. However, the party has no such program to attract youths or bring any prominent leader from other parties.
Though the Congress has been working towards bringing back some of its leaders like Srikant Jena, Giridhar Gamang and others to the party fold. These old leaders have been tested several times and they have failed to win any election after getting out of the old party. They had won elections when they were in Congress. Therefore, the old leaders need Congress to again win elections and not vice-versa.
Therefore, bringing the spent forces to the party would not solve the issue, but it may cause further differences within the party and fuel the internal feud. At this juncture, the party cannot afford to further its internal feud. The aim of the state Congress leadership should be to bring leaders from other parties who may help in raising the party’s vote share. But, that is not happening. Bringing in some old leaders and inducting some retired officers may not solve the problem. Both the leaders of yesteryears and Babus induction in Congress will never add to the party’s vote share.
The party’s aim should be to bring youths and women as the BJD and BJP do. The party must make an announcement to woo the youths and women who will largely decide the fate of any political party in the 2024 elections. Farmers and other working class might be supporters of any particular party, but not the youths and women. These two categories judiciously use their wisdom to elect leaders. They do not remain in one party, rather vulnerable to change. The Congress should take benefit from youths and women. Therefore, it should make some announcement keeping in view the interest of both the categories ahead of polls.
The party also sometimes takes harsh decisions against some popular leaders like Chiranjib Biswal and Mohammed Moquim. Moquim’s popularity could be judged from the fact that he won from Cuttack Barabati assembly segment against the mighty BJD in 2019. Similarly, Chiranjib Biswal also ensured that Congress performed better in the urban poll in Jagatsinghpur. Still, both Md.Moquim and Shri Biswal were suspended from the party and it has been around one year since they remain out of the party activities. Will this action against the popular leaders help Congress raise its vote share?
The proposed padayatra of Rahu Gandhi should cover major portions of Odisha like Bhubaneswar, Cuttack, Balasore, Berhampur and Sambalpur. This is because the political developments taking place in these places have its impact on the entire state. However, Rahul Gandhi’s route chart does not include Bhubaneswar, Cuttack and other places which could make an impact.
There is no doubt that the newly appointed Congress in-charge Ajoy Kumar is a master strategist. He had been a successful officer during his service time. But, he has to be given proper feeding. Ahead of the 2024 elections, Odisha Congress leaders recently had a meeting with AICC president Mallikarjun Kharge, Rahul Gandhi and other senior leaders in Delhi.
The party has been asked to sharpen the attack against BJD and the BJP on the issues of corruption, unemployment, and price rise. As an impression among the people is created that both the BJD and the BJP are both sides of one coin, the Congress has ample opportunity to gain the confidence of the people. However, the party first of all became disciplined and united to fight against the BJD and the BJP. The old party may not return to power in the 2024 elections, but it has the potential to emerge as the main opposition party in Odisha.