Bhubaneswar: Though there is a slowdown in political activities, as it passes through a transitional phase over a development in the last week of October, the state might witness a hectic activity in days to come. The next move is totally dependent on the outcome of the five State Assembly results which is scheduled to be made public on 3 December, 2023.
There is in fact slowdown in Odisha politics though certain changes have been made in the opposition BJP where its state party chief, Manmohan Samal appointed Presidents of the 36 organizational districts. Otherwise the BJP’s activities remain confined to only press conferences. The party is however, planning a four day block level agitation plan from November 14.
However, optimistic of the party’s better performance, Congress rank and file seems to be in an upbeat mood. The party has meanwhile held a rally in Puri, a Sankirtan Satyagraha and also plans a Tulsi Jatra over certain issues relating to Shree Jagannath temple in Puri. The party may accelerate its activities soon after the results of the five State Assembly elections are announced.
Similarly, the activities in the ruling BJD is on waiting mode as the regional outfit is anxiously waiting anxiously for the joining of former bureaucrat V K Pandian, who voluntarily retired from the elite civil service on October 23, 2023. BJD’s next move may be witnessed after the former mandarin joining the party and taking a lead role in the BJD. BJD’s top leader Pranab Prakash Das has publicly praised Shri Pandian and also described him as an able disciple of Naveen Patnaik. The BJD activities will be accelerated after the joining of Shri Pandian and also following the announcement of the five State Assembly election results.
In fact, everybody is waiting with bated breath to see what is happening in the political arena. The BJP, which is leading the NDA and ruling the country since nine years at a stretch, is put into test. The people of one-sixth of India will say whether they are happy with the Narendra Modi government or not. The assembly elections in the states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram, are being held and the results will come out in the first week of December. The five states elections are considered as the semi-final before the general Lok Sabha elections in 2024, which is barely five months away.
The BJP leaders including Prime Minister Narendra Modi have expressed confidence that the saffron will rule over the five states while Congress and its INDIA partners are equally determined to defeat the NDA candidates. While Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh are ruled by Congress, the Madhya Pradesh government is headed by saffron veteran Shivraj Singh Chouhan. Telangana is headed by Bharat Rastra Samithi and Mizoram is governed by MNF. In these five elections, Congress seems to be giving a major challenge to Shri Modi and his saffron brigade. The real fight between the BJP and Congress is held in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
Apart from the ruling BJD headed by Naveen Patnaik, the results of five state elections will certainly have its impact on Odisha politics as both the BJP and Congress are stakeholders here also. If Congress wins in the major states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, it will certainly boost morale of the party workers in Odisha and vice-versa for BJP. If BJP wins, it will greatly impact Odisha politics and also the ruling BJD. In the event of BJP’s better performance in the five states, the ruling regional party here may not ignore the saffron brigade here and take the next elections more seriously than previous ones.
Though the public perception in Odisha is that both the BJD and the BJP are one in National Politics, they fight with each other in Odisha. People also vote for them separately here. While BJP could win eight Lok Sabha seats in the previous 2019 general elections, the BJD had to lose an equal number of seats though it got 12 LS seats. If the BJP performs badly in the five state elections, the electoral prospects may brighten, particularly in the western region of the state where the saffron party candidates won 5 LS seats last time.
However, if BJP performs better in the five states, it may become a headache for the BJD which is this time to perform its 2014 general election results by securing 20 of the 21 LS seats. While confident of winning the next Assembly elections due to absence of a credible opposition, the Naveen Patnaik’s party this time is more serious for the Lok Sabha polls. The regional political party was in fact worried over BJP taking eight of the 21 LS seats in Odisha. The regional party this time will have a separate strategy for the Lok Sabha elections notwithstanding the BJP’s performance in the five state assembly elections. Anyway, the next six months are going to be crucial for all the parties in Odisha.
