Bhubaneswar: Independent Rajya Sabha candidate Dilip Ray’s visit to the residence of veteran leader Bijoy Mohapatra on Tuesday has sent ripples through Odisha’s political circles, signaling a potential shift in the electoral math for the fourth vacant seat.
Patkura MLA Arabinda Mohapatra, who is Bijoy’s son and was recently suspended from the BJD, confirmed the meeting but described it as a social call to exchange Holi greetings based on decades-old family ties.
He maintained that no formal discussions regarding the Rajya Sabha election or political strategies took place during the visit.
Despite the personal framing of the meeting, Arabinda’s comments to the media carried significant weight. He lauded Shri Ray as a highly qualified candidate with forty years of political experience and noted that the number of contenders has already increased from four to five, with a sixth candidate potentially entering the fray before the March 5 nomination deadline.
This observation highlights the growing complexity of the race in the 147-member Odisha Legislative Assembly, where a candidate needs 30 first-preference votes to secure a seat.
The numerical landscape shows the BJP, with 79 MLAs and 3 supporting independents, in a position to easily elect two candidates, Manmohan Samal and Sujeet Kumar, while retaining a surplus of 22 votes.
The BJD, holding 50 seats, however recent suspensions of MLAs like Arabinda Mohapatra and Sanatan Mahakud will reduce effective strength to 48 and regional outfit can comfortably elect its primary candidate, Santrupt Misra, but falls short of securing a second seat on its own.
To capture the fourth seat, the BJD and Congress (14 seats) have joined forces to support Dr. Datteswar Hota as a common candidate, creating a block of roughly 62 votes aimed at securing two seats for their alliance.
Shri Ray’s path to victory as an independent backed by the BJP depends on his ability to bridge an 8-vote gap. His outreach to the Mohapatra Family is seen by analysts as a strategic move to tap into the support of unaligned or disgruntled legislators.
Shri Ray is famous for his 2002 Rajya Sabha victory, where he won as an independent by leveraging cross-party support despite not having the official numbers.
As the March 16 voting date approaches, his veteran experience and personal connections are being watched closely to see if he can once again disrupt the established party calculations in Odisha.
If Dilip Ray successfully engineers a repeat of his 2002 victory, it would signify a major blow to the BJD-Congress alliance’s unity. By backing an Independent, the BJP avoids the technicalities of a party whip for third-party candidates while leveraging Shri Ray’s personal influence to “poach” the 8 votes needed to secure a third seat for their camp.