Bhubaneswar: The demand for employment in Odisha is expected to increase from 175 lakh in the year 2011-12 to 2.10 crore during 2026-27, with incremental demand of 35.8 lakh by 2026-27.
This was projected by a study conducted by National Institute of Labour Economic Research and Development (NILERD), an autonomous institute under NITI Aayog, Government of India.
After conducting the study, the institute has submitted its report to the State Government with recommendations.
The study uses both primary survey information of the institutions, establishments and households and secondary data from various ministries, and uses suitable econometric tools for projections of manpower over the said period to develop a skill development eco-system in the State.
Under the baseline scenario, the demand for employment in the State may reach 2.10 crore by 2026-27. Out of which, demand for employment in the agriculture sector would decline from 95.5 lakh in 2011-12 to 89.6 lakh in 2026-27. On the other hand, the demand for employment is expected to increase both in industry and services from 41.7 and 37.8 lakh in 2011-12 to 69.3 and 51.8 lakh in 2026- 27, respectively.
The manpower demand for the disaggregated sector shows that within industry, higher demand is expected to come from the construction sector (21 lakh in 2011-12 to 43.7 lakh in 2026-27) followed by manufacturing (17.1 lakh in 2011-12 to 19.4 lakh in 2026-27).
Within the service sector, the demand is expected to be highest in sectors like trade, hotel and restaurants, transport, storage and communication, other services (education, health etc.), and banking and insurance.
Under the optimistic scenario, the manpower demand may touch 215.5 lakh by 2026-27 from 175.0 lakh in 2011-12 with an incremental demand of 40.6 lakh by 2026-27.
In contrast, manpower demand is expected to remain low under a pessimistic scenario from 175.0 lakh in 2011-12 to 206.7 lakh in 2026-27 with an incremental demand of 31.8 lakh till 2026-27, the study report says.
The study found that roughly 0.45 million people join the labour force every year in the State of Odisha. While the demand for skilled jobs in the State may touch 13 million by the end of 2026-27, the supply of skilled labour force is lagging behind, leading to the shortage of a whopping 11 million skilled labour force by then.
For the age group 15-59, the supply of manpower is expected to touch 198.1 lakh in 2026-27 from around 176.3 lakh in 2016-17. Therefore, the demand-supply gap of manpower may increase from 4.1 lakh in 2011-12 to 6.3 lakh in 2016-17 and further to 6.5 lakh in 2026- 27.
The study also says that the demand for skilled jobs for all age groups may increase to 93.7 lakh in 2016-17 to 131.3 lakh in 2026-27. Across sectors, highest demand for skilled jobs is expected to come from industry (40.7 lakh in 2016-17 to 61.5 lakh in 2026-27) followed by services sector (34.0 lakh in 2016-17 to 46.0 lakh in 2026-27).
The skill gap in all three sectors such as agriculture sector, industry and services is expected to increase over the years. Services sector, driven largely by travel and tourism, retail services, ICT, infrastructure, banking and insurance and other services (education and health) are expected to face higher skill gaps due to more demand for skilled personnel in the future.
“The skill gap for the potential sectors such as metal based industries, food processing, textile, travel and tourism, retail sector and ICT are found as 0.92, 0.42, 0.22, 5.61, 3.04, 3.82 lakh respectively by 2026-27,” it said.
The study has suggested actionable policy plans at the sectoral level to improve the supply situation of skilled manpower and at the same time to create more domestic demand to absorb the skilled labour force.